When will this bull market end? Market cycles, to a large extent, are based on psychology and participation. Bottoms occur when everyone is pessimistic and no one wants to own a particular asset. Conversely, when everyone is excited and everyone has crowded into an asset class, a top is near. Recall not long ago oil…

Corporate earnings season is under-way. Expectations for the 1st quarter are high as analysts look to new lower corporate tax rates and a fairly strong economy to deliver good results. The US dollar has been declining against other major currencies which also should provide a tailwind for companies that have significant overseas revenues. As I…

After an up January, the long-awaited stock market correction happened in February.   From the recent peak on January 26th to the low on February 8th, the S&P500 fell 10%. Finally a 10% correction!  The previous 10% market correction began in November 2015 and ended in February 2016. Many have said we were long overdue. Of…

The market entered 2018 with the bulls in charge.  While such a strong start may be surprising, it is consistent with a strong global growth picture.  US GDP in the 3rd quarter of 2017, grew 3.2%, a pretty respectable rate. Anemic Europe managed to grow by 2.5%.  Even Italy, the weakest major European economy increased…

In the last issue, I wrote about the prospect of interest rates rising and the impact that would have on stock prices.  A tame inflation picture After rising from 2.66% on September 8th to 2.96% on October 26, the 30-year rate on US Treasury bonds has moved back down. At the close on November 6,…

Evocative of the saying, “You can’t keep a good man down”, you could easily say, “You can’t keep a bull market down.”  Since the bottom in 2009, every time the market seemed to meet an insurmountable challenge, it found a way to power through.  Over the past month, hopes for global economic growth combined with…

“It’s a Bull Market until proved otherwise” is an old Wall Street saying.  From what we have experienced in recent history, this old adage makes sense.  Starting in 2009 to the present, Bull has withstood negativity, fear, Greek crises, Brexit, elections, you name it and still makes its way higher.  Many pundits say the Bull…

Is there Russian interference? The seemingly widening question of Russian influence in the 2016 Presidential Election and in the current Trump administration has gripped the headlines and placed a new concern as to the continuation of the bull market.  It is hard to predict where the investigations will lead.  However, I don’t believe that even…

Stocks remain resilient Until the past two weeks, geopolitics is something that the market has ignored for quite some time. With North Korea saber-rattling with its missiles and the US firing off some of their own at Syrian targets, stock market volatility has increased. In addition, the fear-trade seems to be on again with investors…

Continued good economic news The economic news continues to come in reasonably good. Consumer sentiment, jobless claims, and manufacturing gauges are all continuing to be positive. Good data also continue to come in from China and Europe. European inflation for the first time since January 2013 hit 2%, a signal that the extraordinary actions the…