January did as it did last year and gave investors a New Year’s hangover. The S&P500 was down 3% for the month. Smaller companies, as measured by the Russell 2000, were down 3.25%. Falling oil prices, concerns about Europe, and whether the two would hurt corporate earnings dampened the “animal spirits” of the markets. February…

January is the month for predictions and forecasts. While they are fun to read, the evidence shows that the beginning of the year predictions seldom come true. All facets of life, including the financial markets, are the product of complex systems with many variables that lead to a wide range of outcomes. With a large…

As discussed previously, September and October have reputations as volatile and down months.  This year certainly proved the assertion true. The bears had plenty of ammunition to sell stocks.  There was continued geopolitical turmoil, weak economic numbers out of Europe, and a Federal Reserve that discontinued quantitative easing. Lower Oil Prices In addition to these…

It seems to me that the geopolitical world order runs like a casino blackjack table. There exists a set of game rules called The Basic Strategy, which you can buy at the casino gift shop to show you what to do when you have a certain hand and the dealer is showing a certain card.…

I hope all of you enjoyed a good summer with some well-deserved rest. Not much has changed. The Russians are still in eastern Ukraine. ISIS is still running around Syria and Iraq, and the bull market is still intact. At the time of the last newsletter, about 50% of S&P500 companies had reported their earnings, and…

The Stock market hit an all-time high in July and I think the bull market will continue for a while. Of course, a caveat that there could be a correction is always worth mentioning.  Global political conflicts – Ukraine, Gaza, and Iraq are all making investors nervous.  Any one of those conflicts could escalate and a…

I recently heard the prominent money manager, Leon Cooperman, make a funny but relevant quote.  He said, “If 100% of my portfolio is at 52-week highs then I am a momentum chaser.  If 100% of my portfolio is at 52-week lows, I’m out of business.” The point Cooperman was making is that when building a…

“The most hated bull market” continues. Yesterday the S&P500 closed above 1900 for the first time – a record. As I like to point out, the pundits were wrong again.  Just days before the market hit a new high, they were scrolling off lists of why the market must go down.  The utilities are going…

While the major indices are more or less where they were a month ago, there have been major corrections in certain sectors of the market, namely biotech, internet, and social media. The ETFs that track the biotech and social media stocks were down 21% and 22%, respectively. These are high profile sectors but are relatively…

As we move through March, the bull market seems very much intact. Recent manufacturing reports were strong and after two months of soft numbers, the employment picture seems to be firming up. The S&P500 recovered from its January decline to make a new high on March 7th. Earnings season for the 4th quarter is behind…