We are back from the summer and the stock market is, despite some big up and down days, pretty much at the level where it began the summer. The bond market is a different story The bond market is a different story, interest rates in the US and Europe steadily declined throughout July and August.…

The stock market is gripped once again by the US-China trade negotiations. The US has upped the ante by increasing tariffs on $200 billion of goods imported from China.  President Trump has threatened to expand the list.  China has retaliated and could consider other measures. It may well be that the threats and negotiations will go on…

The stock market put up a tremendous quarter that brought prices within a few percentage points of all-time highs. Once the Fed convinced the markets it was not going to blindly hike rates to send the economy to oblivion, the market stabilized from its 4th quarter swoon and launched higher. The other fears that plagued…

The stock market has sharply moved higher, erasing about 60% of the September 20 to December 24 decline. Will the economy slow in 2019? While investors are breathing a bit easier, the mood on Wall Street is far from euphoric. There is a general feeling that the economy in 2019 will slow and corporate profits…

2019 could not have arrived sooner for investors. The 4th quarter of 2018 was terrible for stocks, culminating in the worst December since The Great Depression year, 1931. During the 4th quarter, a combination of events tipped the market over after the new highs at the end of September. From October 1 to December 31,…

In the course of 2018, the US stock market hit a high at the end of January, then immediately suffered a quick 10% correction. This was followed by many months of recovery to achieve a new high in September only to once again immediately fall 10% into another correction. 2018: Tired bull market or index…

In the last issue of this newsletter, I made an observation that the stock market was seemingly ignoring a rise in interest rates. This week the market abruptly took notice. The 10-year US Treasury this week accelerated higher moving from 3.05% on Tuesday to 3.23% at the close of business on Friday. This broke the…

Investors came back from summer vacation and after a shaky start to September, rallied the market to new highs. Buying despite serious concerns over US trade policy The buying has occurred despite serious concerns over US trade policy with Mexico and Canada and a series of tariffs imposed on and retaliated by China. Bull markets…

The Federal Reserve raised rates this month. This was no surprise to the markets and continues the path the Fed has telegraphed. While the Fed and the stock market are behaving in a manner consistent with a belief that the economy is strong and inflationary pressures are building, the longer-end of the bond market, the…

When will this bull market end? Market cycles, to a large extent, are based on psychology and participation. Bottoms occur when everyone is pessimistic and no one wants to own a particular asset. Conversely, when everyone is excited and everyone has crowded into an asset class, a top is near. Recall not long ago oil…