As we move into February, stocks continue to show strength, albeit without the explosiveness we witnessed in January.  Expectations for policy changes such as a reduction in regulations, tax reform, and increased spending continue to support the bulls.  However, the optimism may be losing some of its luster.  Interest in safety trades There seems to…

I’d like to wish all of you a happy, healthy, and prosperous new year.  Promises of Tax Cuts and More Government Spending 2016 is gone and with it the tensions surrounding the US election. My guess is that the old saying that “one campaigns in poetry but governs in prose” is likely to hold true. …

I hope everyone’s summer was fun and an enjoyable break. This summer, unlike the recent past, did not bring a decline in the markets.  The old proverb, “Sell in May and go away” was not the right call this year. For the most part, the markets managed to grind higher.  The events that were supposed…

I ended my commentary last month with the sentence, “Hopefully good economics will prevail this time around”. Brexit decision That sentiment became more of an open question following the unexpected decision by the British electorate to leave the European Union. The immediate market response was to run for cover. The British Pound fell precipitously, stocks…

The global markets are on pins and needles awaiting next week’s referendum on whether the United Kingdom will leave the European Union. The vote on June 23rd has significant ramifications not only for the British. It may well set the tone for other EU nations to contemplate exiting the economic bloc.  If the “Brexit” movement…

The stock market has managed to grind higher throughout April. Oil prices rallied, the US dollar weakened and China showed signs that its economy is stabilizing. These three conditions are just what the market needed to breathe easier and recover from the steep declines expressed in the first quarter. As usual, the market rallied in the…

Last month I mused that what the market needs is good economic news from China and stability to oil prices. Since the last newsletter, we actually got such data. Good economic news from China and oil price stability Both government and independent data-gathering organizations reported an expansion in Chinese manufacturing for the first time in…

US employment data continued strong while GDP growth is sluggish. February saw another 200,000+ getting jobs. What frustrates so many market participants is that the economic data shows such a mixed bag. Consistently strong employment data has come out despite recently weak manufacturing, service, and GDP data. Auto sales have been robust as has loan…

Stocks and corporate bonds have continued to come under pressure. Low oil prices have called into question global growth and the ability of banks to absorb losses that may arise from companies going bankrupt in the low oil price environment. The Role Confidence Plays in Financial Markets The weakness shows how important a role “confidence”…

As I write, I am awaiting the December Jobs Report. The news release has a greater interest in light of the stock market having the worst start to a year on record. The S&P500 has fallen about 5% in the four trading days of 2016. Weak economic data out of China and the sharp decline…