The stock market has managed to grind higher throughout April. Oil prices rallied, the US dollar weakened and China showed signs that its economy is stabilizing. These three conditions are just what the market needed to breathe easier and recover from the steep declines expressed in the first quarter. As usual, the market rallied in the…
Last month I mused that what the market needs is good economic news from China and stability to oil prices. Since the last newsletter, we actually got such data. Good economic news from China and oil price stability Both government and independent data-gathering organizations reported an expansion in Chinese manufacturing for the first time in…
US employment data continued strong while GDP growth is sluggish. February saw another 200,000+ getting jobs. What frustrates so many market participants is that the economic data shows such a mixed bag. Consistently strong employment data has come out despite recently weak manufacturing, service, and GDP data. Auto sales have been robust as has loan…
Stocks and corporate bonds have continued to come under pressure. Low oil prices have called into question global growth and the ability of banks to absorb losses that may arise from companies going bankrupt in the low oil price environment. The Role Confidence Plays in Financial Markets The weakness shows how important a role “confidence”…
As I write, I am awaiting the December Jobs Report. The news release has a greater interest in light of the stock market having the worst start to a year on record. The S&P500 has fallen about 5% in the four trading days of 2016. Weak economic data out of China and the sharp decline…
The market has given investors a roller-coast ride. The summer was sharply down with oil prices, a strong dollar, and the prospect of a Fed interest rate hike weighing on the market. October saw a nice rebound as economic data showed that the US was performing well. Then came November and weakness returned as oil,…
September ended the worst quarter for stocks in four years. In the period July 1, 2015, to September 30, 2015, the S&P500 lost 6.9%. The index closed the quarter at 1,920, almost the same place it was in May 2014. All asset classes affected Market turmoil led investors to move out of almost all asset…
Investors and traders will be back in full swing on Tuesday following the end of August and Labor Day Weekend holidays. Stock Market into Correction Territory Since our last newsletter, the stock market took a hard and fast move down into correction territory. While we have been talking about a market correction for some time,…
Stocks hit an air-pocket in late June and early July over worries surrounding Greece and China. The latest round of the ever-present Greek financial drama continued with great spectacle. There were missed deadlines, intense rhetoric, and a referendum where 61% of Greeks opposed more austerity. I suppose that’s not a tremendous revelation. After several years…
A string of solid economic reports Friday’s Labor Department Employment Report came in much stronger than expected with 280,000 people finding new jobs in May. This report capped a string of solid economic reports that point to the US economy rebounding from a weak first quarter. The stock market doesn’t really know how to view…
