2019 could not have arrived sooner for investors. The 4th quarter of 2018 was terrible for stocks, culminating in the worst December since The Great Depression year, 1931. During the 4th quarter, a combination of events tipped the market over after the new highs at the end of September. From October 1 to December 31,…

In the course of 2018, the US stock market hit a high at the end of January, then immediately suffered a quick 10% correction. This was followed by many months of recovery to achieve a new high in September only to once again immediately fall 10% into another correction. 2018: Tired bull market or index…

In the last issue of this newsletter, I made an observation that the stock market was seemingly ignoring a rise in interest rates. This week the market abruptly took notice. The 10-year US Treasury this week accelerated higher moving from 3.05% on Tuesday to 3.23% at the close of business on Friday. This broke the…

Investors came back from summer vacation and after a shaky start to September, rallied the market to new highs. Buying despite serious concerns over US trade policy The buying has occurred despite serious concerns over US trade policy with Mexico and Canada and a series of tariffs imposed on and retaliated by China. Bull markets…

The Federal Reserve raised rates this month. This was no surprise to the markets and continues the path the Fed has telegraphed. While the Fed and the stock market are behaving in a manner consistent with a belief that the economy is strong and inflationary pressures are building, the longer-end of the bond market, the…

When will this bull market end? Market cycles, to a large extent, are based on psychology and participation. Bottoms occur when everyone is pessimistic and no one wants to own a particular asset. Conversely, when everyone is excited and everyone has crowded into an asset class, a top is near. Recall not long ago oil…

Corporate earnings season is under-way. Expectations for the 1st quarter are high as analysts look to new lower corporate tax rates and a fairly strong economy to deliver good results. The US dollar has been declining against other major currencies which also should provide a tailwind for companies that have significant overseas revenues. As I…

After an up January, the long-awaited stock market correction happened in February.   From the recent peak on January 26th to the low on February 8th, the S&P500 fell 10%. Finally a 10% correction!  The previous 10% market correction began in November 2015 and ended in February 2016. Many have said we were long overdue. Of…

The market entered 2018 with the bulls in charge.  While such a strong start may be surprising, it is consistent with a strong global growth picture.  US GDP in the 3rd quarter of 2017, grew 3.2%, a pretty respectable rate. Anemic Europe managed to grow by 2.5%.  Even Italy, the weakest major European economy increased…

In the last issue, I wrote about the prospect of interest rates rising and the impact that would have on stock prices.  A tame inflation picture After rising from 2.66% on September 8th to 2.96% on October 26, the 30-year rate on US Treasury bonds has moved back down. At the close on November 6,…