Assessing 2023 & Looking Forward to 2024

2023 was a difficult year for investors but as we take a breath and after assessing 2023, it can best be summarized as The Bard wrote, “All’s well that ends well.” Bears Controlled the 2023 Narrative In 2023, the Bears controlled the narrative – inflation and interest rates were going to move unstoppably higher, recession…

2023: A Good Year for the Market?

It hardly seems it but we are halfway through 2023. Just as unbelievable is that the stock market is having a good year. >> To subscribe to this monthly newsletter, click on Subscribe! Something for Every Investor! The S&P500 is up just over 18%. The bond market has been ok too. There has been a lot…

Are We Now in a New Bull Market?

Since October 2022, the stock market has steadily climbed higher and is now up over 20% from those lows. This begs the question of whether we are now in a new Bull market. Let’s explore along with concerns about commercial real estate. >> To subscribe to this monthly newsletter, click on Subscribe! Persistent Negativity Despite Upward…

Better Q1 2023 Earnings + Perspective on Banks

Earnings season is well underway and, by most measures, companies are exceeding expectations. >> To subscribe to this monthly newsletter, click on Subscribe! Q1 2023 Earnings: Better Than Expected According to FactSet, with 92% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 78% reported better than expected profits and 75% had revenue numbers that beat expectations. Overall, companies did…

What Determines Stock Prices?

There are two forces investors need to understand when determining the path of stock prices. The first is the Fed and the second is corporate earnings.  >> To subscribe to this monthly newsletter, click on Subscribe! Earnings, Interest Rates, and Stock Prices Stock prices are a function, among other items, of their estimated future earnings discounted…

A Bad Month for Stocks and Bonds

December 2022 was a bad month for stocks and bonds.  The S&P500 fell 5.9% for the month. As measured by the intermediate corporate ETF, LQD, bonds were down 2.2%.  A combination of uncertainty over rates and recession as well as a particularly aggressive tax-loss harvesting season hurt securities.  >> To subscribe to this monthly newsletter, click…

Third Quarter Earnings and Prospects for 2023

The markets have bounced following a lousy September on the heels of corporate earnings, steady employment, and an October CPI that showed inflation may be cooling.  Both stocks and bonds have had big daily swings as money flows react to each piece of economic data.  >> To subscribe to this monthly newsletter, click on Subscribe! Third…

Negative Surprises in Bear Markets

The bear market is still alive and well, and full of surprises. I read a Tweet posted by long-time technical analyst Walter Deemer that said, “In a bear market, the surprises tend to be negative.” >> To subscribe to this monthly newsletter, click on Subscribe! Stronger Consumer Price Index & Wild Dow Jones Swings This was…

Risk and Return When Investing in the Market

As a serious investor, you regularly weigh risk and return as you consider what to invest in, what to divest, and how to react to market news and attempts to manage economic forces. In this article, you’ll get a taste of the market’s response to pain, higher short-term interest rates, and falling bond prices. >>…

Questioning Persistent High Inflation and Deep Recession

In the past week or so, the markets, I suggest, have begun to question the prevailing conventional wisdom that inflation will remain persistently high and that the economy is likely to fall into a deep recession. This article explores why. >> To subscribe to this monthly newsletter, click on Subscribe! Commodity Prices & Payroll Suggest Moderating…